DESCRIZIONE:
Il sistema previsionale subseasonal del CNR-ISAC è stato aggiornato il 5 settembre 2024. ll nuovo sistema previsionale si basa su una versione aggiornata del modello GLOBO che gira ad una risoluzione di 0.7 x 0.5 gradi in longitudine e latitudine e 70 livelli verticali. Il modello utilizza il nuovo schema radiativo ECMWF ecRad. Il forecast consiste di un lagged ensemble di 41 membri di cui 11 inizializzati alle ore 00 UTC del giorno di emissione, e 30 inizializzati in gruppi di 10 alle ore 06, 12 e 18 UTC del giorno precedente. I dati di inizializzazione sono forniti dalle analisi del sistema previsionale GEFS del NOAA-NCEP. I reforecast, con cui si calibra il real-time forecast, sono ensemble di 8 membri inizializzati su dati ECMWF ERA5. Gli ensemble reforecast sono inizializzati ogni 5 giorni, dall'1 gennaio al 27 dicembre del periodo 2001-2020.A partire dal marzo 2014, presso l'Istituto CNR-ISAC, sono prodotte previsioni numeriche mensili d'ensemble con il modello di circolazione atmosferica generale GLOBO, sviluppato dal gruppo di ricerca di Meteorologia Dinamica della sede di Bologna. Le previsioni sono emesse ogni settimana nell'ambito di una Intesa tra l'Istituto e il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile nazionale. Il modello è utilizzato con passo di griglia di 0.80 x 0.56 gradi in longitudine e latitudine, rispettivamente, e 54 livelli verticali. L'ensemble è formato da 40 membri, 10 per ogni orario sinottico del giorno di inizializzazione. I campi di inizializzazione del GLOBO sono forniti dalle analisi del sistema previsionale GEFS del NOAA-NCEP. Le anomalie previste dei diversi parametri meteorologici sono riferite al clima 1981-2010. La calibrazione delle anomalie è ottenuta mediante simulazioni di reforecast prodotte inizializzando il GLOBO ogni 5 giorni mediante i dati di rianalisi ECMWF ERA-Interim per il trentennio di riferimento.
DESCRIPTION:
The CNR-ISAC subseasonal forecast system was updated on 5 September 2024. The forecast system is based on a new version of the GLOBO model, running with a resolution of 0.7 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude and 70 vertical levels. The model uses the new ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme. The real time forecast is an ensemble of 41 members, with 11 members initialised at 00 UTC on the day of issue and 30 initialised in groups of 10 at 06, 12 and 18 UTC on the previous day. The initialisation data are provided by the analyses of the NOAA-NCEP GEFS forecast system. The reforecasts are 8-member ensembles initialised on ECMWF ERA5 data every 5 days from 1 January to 27 December from 2001 to 2020.Since March 2014, at the CNR-ISAC Institute, monthly ensemble forecasts are produced using the atmospheric general circulation model GLOBO developed at the Institute, in Bologna, by the Dynamic Meteorology research group. Forecasts are issued once a week in the framework of a project supported by the National Civil Protection Agency. The model horizontal grid spacing is 0.80 x 0.56 deg in longitude and latitude, respectively. In the vertical, 54 hybrid levels are used. A total of 40 forecast lagged members is obtained from the analyses of GEFS of NOAA-NCEP by using 10 members for each synoptic time of the initialization day. The anomalies of the atmospheric parameters shown here are referred to the 1981-2010 climate. They are calibrated based on reforecasts that are initialized every 5 days using the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset and cover the same 30-year period.
Related links
WWRP/WCRP S2S Project Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (S2S) ProjectS2S database at ECMWF
S2S database at CMA
S2S database at IRI/Columbia University
Graphical products of S2S forecasting systems by the S2S Museum
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Kueh, MT., Lin, CY. The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction. Sci Rep 10, 19283 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4
Rao, J., Garfinkel, C. I., White, I. P., & Schwartz, C. (2020). The Southern Hemisphere minor sudden stratospheric warming in September 2019 and its predictions in S2S models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032723. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032723
Pan, B., K. Hsu, A. AghaKouchak, S. Sorooshian, and W. Higgins, 2019: Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range. J. Climate, 32, 161-182, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0355.1
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Wang, S., Sobel, A.H., Tippett, M.K. et al. Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier. Clim Dyn 52, 6015-6031 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4492-9
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Wang, S., Tippett, M. K., Sobel, A. H., Martin, Z., & Vitart, F. ( 2019). Impact of the QBO on prediction and predictability of the MJO convection. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 11766-11782. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030575
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Zheng, C., Chang, E. K.-M., Kim, H., Zhang, M., & Wang, W. (2019). Subseasonal to seasonal prediction of wintertime northern hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity by S2S and NMME models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 12057-12077. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031252
Son, S.-W., Kim, H., Song, K., Kim, S.-W., Martineau, P., Hyun, Y.-K., & Kim, Y. (2020). Extratropical prediction skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD031273. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031273
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All plots shown in these pages are created with the NCAR Command Language (Version 6.1.2) [Software]. (2013).
Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/VETS. http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5
This work by CNR-ISAC is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
